NHC says 60 percent chance of cyclone over northwestern Caribbean Sea

28 October, 2017, 00:36 | Author: Gregory Stephens
  • All of Tuesday's computer models project 93L to remain east of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front will steer the disturbance northeastward

That's expected to happen Friday night or Saturday, so tropical storm warnings have been issued for parts of Cuba and the Bahamas. The skillful European global model keeps it fairly disorganized, and probably not quite a tropical depression, while the US global model and high-resolution hurricane models are all indicating intensification to a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles, mainly to the south of the center.

In its Friday morning tropical advisory, the hurricane center said, "Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased and become more concentrated in association with a trough of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea".

South Florida including the Florida Keys: 3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum of 8 inches possible.

The system, which would be named Philippe if it gained tropical storm status, has only a small window for development before a cold front rushes down to disrupt its attempt to organize.


Currently, winds are 40 mph with high gusts, and the system is forecast to strengthen within the next 24 to 36 hours.

That's not good news for this year's Moonfest in downtown West Palm Beach, which is scheduled for Saturday.

The disturbance will start to move to the northeast, producing heavy rainfall in the Cayman Islands and Cuba Friday and Saturday. One to three inches of rain are possible generally near and south of a line from Naples to Fort Pierce.

These cyclones typically move northeastward from the Caribbean or western Atlantic ahead of sweeping cold fronts from North America.

Much of this rain may fall during a few hours, which will bring the potential for street and low-lying area flooding.

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